15-9 All-Time with 100 Dimers

Sunday's Recap

50 Dime - Tulsa - loser (Buy the 1/2 point)

Net Loss: -60 Dimes

75 DIME

SUPER BOWL

WINNER #2

IN A ROW

Saints - OUTRIGHT!

Here's what I told my clients...

In a similar fashion to last year, I'm more comfortable backing an explosive offense GETTING points rather than a supposed good defense giving points. Granted, last year's version of the Pittsburgh Steelers wasn't quite the offensive juggernaut the Colts were this year, but it's really not as wide of a margin as you might think. The Steelers of 2008 ran the ball much better than the Colts of 2009, but the Colts obviously throw it better than the Steelers did a year ago. Either way, I just don't feel comfortable backing a team by at least five points who could easily allow, at worst, a backdoor cover to a team that can score from anywhere on the field.

I first want to look at the Colts and why I believe they are susceptible to not only failing to cover the five points, but also losing this game SU. If anyone tells you to forget the regular season and ONLY look at the playoffs, you need to kick them in the teeth and tell them to get as far away from you as possible. The Super Bowl is the culmination of the ENTIRE body of work, from early September through the beginning of February, and we must all realize certain teams will slip up from time to time during that lengthy process... but we can never dismiss anything that happens along the way.

Before we look at each team individually, I want to first compare common opponents (including the playoffs). Keep in mind, I'm not saying this is a great barometer when trying to handicap a game, but it does give you a sense of how these teams have fared against the same type of competition. Early in the season, the Colts went to Miami and had to come back on four separate occasions to pull off a 27-23. In my opinion, Miami laid out the blueprint as one of the better ways to beat the Colts (though they never finished their business). Miami possessed the ball for nearly 46 of 60 minutes, keeping Peyton Manning and company on the sidelines in hopes of getting him a little rusty and out of rhythm. It didn't work, but it did allow Miami to not get blown out and have a legit shot to win in the end. New Orleans also visited Miami this season, and nearly suffered a worse fate than Indy. They fell behind 24-10 at halftime and actually trailed 31-10 at one point in the third quarter, but used a 22-0 spurt in the 4th quarter to secure a 46-34 win... once again proving there is no deficit too large for this offense to overcome.

Indy and New Orleans both pummeled Arizona, with the Colts beating them by 21 and the Saints beating them by 31. Neither game was very close.

The Colts and Saints both played the Jets (Indy got them twice), and both came out on top (I'm not going to count the regular season matchup). New Orleans did it with defense while Indy did it with a second-half surge after falling behind 17-6 late in the second quarter.

Both played Buffalo, but to Indy's credit it was the second team that got abused. The Saints completely destroyed the Bills as I believe Indy would have done had they played their starters.

However, the one game I'd like to pay the most attention to is the matchup with New England. Both Indy and New Orleans got the Patriots in a primetime game (Sunday and Monday night) and both played at home. Now, tell me who you were more impressed with... New Orleans whipping the Patriots by 21 (after calling the dogs off in the 4th) or the Colts who needed a bone-head decision from Bill Belichick to secure a one-point win? Honestly, I don't really care if both teams won or both teams lost, but the Pats were a playoff team and likely the best team to use for our comparison. Tom Brady torched the Indy secondary to the tune of 375 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brady threw for 237 yard, no TDs and two INTs vs. the Saints. Kevin Faulk rushed for a game-high 79 yards vs. the Colts. Faulk was non-existent vs. the Saints, though Laurence Maroney did rush for 64. Clearly the Saints beat this very same Patriots team SOUNDLY... just two weeks after the Colts earned their miracle win.

I don't bring these games up to necessarily compare stats or who fell behind by a larger margin... I bring them up for those people who have been telling me that the Saints aren't even in the same league with the Colts. For those people who tell me that Peyton Manning is clearly, head-and-shoulders ahead of Drew Brees. For those who keep reminding me that the Saints struggled to beat the Vikings at home two weeks ago. But as you can see, these two teams have played a lot of the same teams this year... and the results are eerily similar. So tell me, are the Colts really SUPERIOR in this matchup? If you look at only common opponents, I think it's safe to say not only are the Saints every bit as "classy" as the Colts, but they actually played better against the same set of teams.

Now let's quickly look back at the Colts 2009 regular season and see just how many times they were involved in close games with LESSER offenses than what New Orleans brings to the table. San Francisco came to Indy, led the game at halftime, and nearly pulled the upset. Colts held on for an 18-14 win. How about Jacksonville? I realize the Jags have perenially played the Colts tough, but a 2-point win and a 4-point win is hardly anything to get excited about if you're a Colts' backer today. Houston? The Texans actually had the lead in both meetings, but the Colts imposed their will in the second half of both games and won the first meeting by 3 points and the second game by 8. How about the Ravens? A late Joe Flacco interception (with the team already clearly in field goal range) cost the Ravens a potential win and the Colts held on for a 17-15 win. My point? As good as the Colts are, several teams were easily able to keep the game close with a chance to win in the end. I'm not asking the Saints to win, I'm just asking them to keep it close.

A smart handicapper who is siding with one team or the other in this game doesn't necessarily need to look at which team is better on paper, a smart handicapper puts his clients in the best position to win, and there are far more scenarios that favor the underdog Saints here today. Depending on the angle you want to take, you can make arguments as to why each team is better, but in the end it's all just an opinion. What I'm doing is looking at both teams over the entire season and giving you the team I think puts us in the best position to win money. The general public LOVES to bet the favorites and at last check, nearly 2 out of every three bets has been placed on the Colts. That's GREAT news for us.

What's even better is that despite the heavy money on the favorite, the line is actually coming down a bit. That's called reverse line movement and although it's not a sole reason to bet a team, it sure does help. We all saw the Saints struggle with the Vikings while the Colts decimated the Jets in the second half. As soon as Vegas opened this line, the public flooded in on the Colts. And considering this game is being played at a neutral site, the 5-point line would normally tell us (using the standard 3-point home field advantage) the Colts would be favored by 8 or 9 at home and would actually be favored by 2 or 3 IN New Orleans. Obviously that's ridiculous and I think Vegas might be begging us to take the Colts.

Folks, the bottom line is... we have two very talented teams who are more than capable of winning this game. The Colts have the advantage at the QB position, the Saints have the advantage at RB, both teams have good WRs and TEs, both have solid O-lines and D-lines, and both teams have solid linebackers and defensive backs. The Saints have the advantage in special teams with Garrett Hartley, Reggie Bush and Courtney Roby (don't forget about him). When all is said and done and the smoke clears, the Saints may not end up winning this game but I just can't imagine them losing by more than a field goal. 75-dime Super Bowl Winner #2 in a row on the New Orleans Saints PLUS the number.

Final Score: Saints (+5) 31, Colts 17

75 DIME

COLLEGE HOOPS

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER

Duke 61, Butler (+7) 59

Here's what I had to say about my winner on Butler...

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong... and I was dead wrong about the Blue Devils Saturday night. They were clearly the better team in that matchup... but West Virginia didn't do themselves any favors either. They shot poorly, they didn't convert enough from the free throw line and they were stubborn with their defense, failing to change things up even when it was proven they weren't working. It also didn't help West Virginia's cause that Duke was unconscio%k1%s from downtown, hitting 13-of-25 from three-point land. But like I've said before... Duke lives and dies by the three, and I just don't believe for a minute they will shoot this well from out there again tonight.

Since Duke's blowout win over North Carolina to end the regular season, they've been playing very good basketball. But my thought here is that they haven't seen a defense as disciplined as Butler in any of those games and tonight they are in for a dose of reality. The Bulldogs haven't allowed anyone to score 60 points in this tournament and have limited 12 of their last 13 opponents to under 60 PPG. Butler likely should have lost that game becau%k2%se they made just 15 field goals in 40 minutes, but when you play they type of defense Butler plays, you can still have a bad shooting day and win games. It might not be pretty, but it's a win. That's why I like the underdog getting points in a game like this. When Butler loses a game, and it's not often (only four times this year), they don't get slaughtered. The biggest loss on Butler's resume this year was by 10 points AT UAB... and that game, by far, was the worst game they played all season. And that was played back before Christmas... the last time they lost a game.

Butler has beaten Michigan State, Kansas State, Syracuse, UTEP and Murray State en route to this game tonight. Duke, on the other hand, hasn't faced near the tournament schedule Butler has and I think that also plays in our favor tonight. Cal and Purdue are decent teams, Baylor is definitely above average (but not as good as Kansas State), West Virginia is defin%k3%tely solid and Arkansas Pine Bluff is a joke. So, you tell me, which team had a tougher road to get to this point? And which team is basically playing a home game? And which team has covered 6 of their last 9 on a neutral floor? Look, I'm not trying to tell you I believe Butler is a better team... because I'm not sure they are. But I do know I'll gladly back an underdog playing in a virtual home game when they are the better defensive team.

Butler challenges Duke for the SU win and a National Championship tonight.

ONE AND ONLY

100 DIME

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP

TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Vikings-Saints OVER: WINNER!

Here's why I told my clients the easy play on this game was on the total, not the side!

Well, here it is... my highest rated game of the playoffs thus far... and it happens to be a total. We could guess all day as to whether or not the Saints will beat the Vikings or Brett Favre will pull off more magic and get the upset for his Vikings. No one knows, as both of these teams are more than capable of winning. Why do you think the number is 3 1/2?? Home field advantage. If this game was played at a neutral site, I think it's safe to say the line would be a pick 'em. But that doesn't matter to me today... all I care about is how many points these two offenses score, and I'm saying they both surpass 30 points today. In fact, I'd be surprised if there were a combined 4 punts in this game. These two just don't believe in kicking the ball back to the other team unless it's after they've scored. How many times do you NOT remember the Vikings and Saints going for it on 4th down this year? Shoot, even last week both teams converted a fourth down opportunity.

For the season, the Vikings converted 8 of 12 4th down opportunities while the Saints didn't have as much luck, percentage wise, but did "go for it" 15 times during the regular season (converting 6). What's even more impressive is the fact that both of these teams converted nearly 50% of their 3rd down chances... so it wasn't like 3rd downs were a big deal for either of these teams.

Drew Brees vs. Brett Favre. The student vs. the teacher. Brees led his team to score the most points in the NFL before blasting the Cardinals last week by 31 points. Favre led his team to scoring the second-most points in the NFL this year before leading them to a 31-point win over the Cowboys. Forget defense folks... neither of these teams have much of a defense to speak of regardless of what they did last week. Those who play the under today will point to the fact the Vikings held the prolific Cowboys offense to just three points while the Saints shut down Kurt Warner and company to the tune of 14 points last week.

Honestly, I don't care. I saw those games and you likely did too. First of all, Minnesota's defense only shows up at home. Secondly, Dallas moved the ball very well but missed two field goals, had several costly turnovers that stalled drives. Let's be honest, the 3 points Dallas put on the board was more about the Cowboys ineptness on offense rather than Minnesota's staggering defense. As for the Saints allowing only 14 points to Arizona... well, let's just say once Kurt Warner was "horizontal" that game was over. After an interception, Warner tried to make a tackle but was blind-sided by an oncoming defender and was absolutely laid out. Warner clearly wasn't the same and was eventually replaced by Matt Leinart... and we all know how that goes. I am a firm believer that if those four teams all hooked up again this weekend, the final outcomes would be completely different. I'm not saying the Vikings and Saints wouldn't have won, but the scores would have been different. I'm telling you... the Vikings and Saints don't have good defenses.

And if you're looking at averages, please be smart about it. First, let's look at the Saints. The numbers say they allow just over 20 PPG for the season. However, a closer look at their schedule shows that they allowed a good portion more than 20 points when playing teams that actually have an offense. In their first two games of the year (vs. Detroit and Philly), the Saints allowed a combined 49 points as both scored over 20. They also allowed 27 to the Giants, 34 to the Dolphins, 27 to Atlanta, 23 to the freaking Rams, 30 to the Redskins, 23 to Atlanta, and 24 to Dallas. Oh sure, if you throw in the games against Buffalo and Tampa Bay and the Jets, it's easy to see why the Saints could have "skewed" average numbers. Those teams would struggle to score against high school teams. The Saints give up points and that's all there is to it.

In terms of the Vikings, well, on paper they appear to be even better than the Saints, defensively. But a closer look shows Minnesota actually struggling against teams that rank higher than 16th in overall offense. Anyone can limit the Lions and Bears and Seahawks to 10 points or less... but when the competition stiffened, the Vikings defense folded. How about 31 points to Baltimore AT HOME? What about 36 from the Bears or 26 from the Matt Moore-led Panthers or the 30 from the Cardinals or the 26 and 23 from Green Bay or the 27 from Pittsburgh or 24 from San Francisco?

There is absolutely no doubt these two teams will score in the high-20s tonight as we're still dealing with the top two offenses in the NFL. And please understand I'm not just referring to the last three Vikings road games either... though those do serve a purpose. Minnesota allowed 30, 26 and 36 to Arizona, Carolina and Chicago to end the regular season. They aren't completely 100% healthy right now and will need to substitute multiple times in order to try and slow down this high-powered Brees-led attack. EJ Henderson, the heart and soul of this defense has been out since their 36-30 Monday night loss to Chicago and will be sorely missed today. Ray Edwards isn't 100% and Antoine Winfield hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury. The rest of the secondary, in my opinion, is a joke. Brees should be able to shred this unit with relative ease with a healthy, balanced dose of running (whoever's hot at the moment) and mid-range passing game. For the most part, no one has showed the ability to stop this offense and I see no reason Minnesota gets to them early tonight.

Finally, let's just take a history quiz. How many of the last 10 Saints/Vikings meetings have gone OVER the total? 4? 6? 7? Try 8. Eight of their last 10 meetings have gone over the posted total. In fact, their last meeting took place in Minneapolis in 2008 and resulted in a 30-27 Minnesota win. That game not only went OVER the posted total that day, it would have been good enough to go OVER this number. Other Vikings/Saints scores include 38-31, 32-31, 25-24 and 31-24. All but one of those scores would have gone OVER today's posted total. Simply put, these two teams realize what's on the line today and, unlike the Jets, they have the ability to score on just about anyone. I like both teams to score over 30 points tonight, making it my biggest NFL total of the year.

BIGGEST HOOPS RELEASE EVER

80 DIME

NON CONFERENCE

GAME OF THE YEAR

Georgetown (+2) 89-77 over Duke

Here's what I told my clients...

One of the biggest reasons I backed Syracuse as a 25-dime winner Monday over Georgetown is because I truly believed, even though it was a rivalry game, the Hoyas were looking ahead to this game. Seriously, think about it... why else would bad teams beat good teams, or at least come pretty darn close to doing so? We're talking about 18-22 year old kids who can't possibly be expected to "get pumped" about all 30 (or so) games that they play during the regular season. Are you telling me Michigan State is only 7 points better than Iowa? I mean, Vegas had the Spartans listed as a 22-point favorite, so they know how much better they are. So why only a seven-point win? Or why did Kentucky just lose to a very average South Carolina team when it's perfectly clear they are far better. Lack of motivation, lack of defense, etc. It's easy for great players to "take it easy" once in a while, especially when they are playing bad teams or if they have their minds focused on an upcoming game.

For Michigan State, they just didn't take Iowa seriously that night. Kentucky got caught looking ahead and I also think they didn't take South Carolina as seriously as they probably should have. The same goes for Georgetown. Despite being a rival of Syracuse, they still have bitter feelings towards Duke from last year's debacle in Durham and I can guarantee you these kids have circled this rematch with the Blue Devils as soon as they got back home last year. Did they want to beat Syracuse? Sure they did. Did they give their best effort? Absolutely not... and they'll prove it the next time these two hook up in D.C. In the meantime, the Hoyas have a score to settle with the Dukies, and they're going to take care of business this afternoon in the nation's capitol in front of a sellout crowd that includes President Barack Obama.

Today's matchup between these two ranked teams is the final game of a four-game contract between the two schools that was made-for-TV... it gives the networks the ability to pick and choose the year and venue of each game. It first started in January of 2006 when the Hoyas hosted the then-#1 Blue Devils and knocked them from their perch, 87-84. The next two games took place in Durham, North Carolina and Duke proceeded to win both of those by 9. So, Duke has won both of their home games while the Hoyas won their home game, but Duke hasn't covered a single game in the first three of this four-game contract and I don't see that changing today. Duke earned a "push" last year at home when, in fact, Georgetown should have covered their third straight in this series. Remember, at a key stretch in the second half Georgetown F Greg Monroe was called for a ridiculous technical foul while he was on the bench. Even a year after the fact Monroe and HC John Thompson is still baffled as to why the refs decided to "T him up". The conclusion was that a rabid Georgetown fan behind the Hoyas bench was badgering the official and he assumed it was Monroe. The tech was called, the free throws were made, Duke got the ball back and hit a three. Game, set, match.

You can't tell me that sequence of events doesn't fire this team up. They want this game in the worst way... and if for nothing else to get them fired up for a home date (and rematch) with Villanova next weekend. Today's game is the first of a three-game homestand --- three very key games that, if they can go 3-0, would set them up nicely for a run at the Big East title. At home the Hoyas have dropped just one game SU, a 61-57 loss to Old Dominion in which they took the Monarchs too lightly in the first half and fell behind by 11 at the break. Since then they have been perfect in D.C. and I don't see that stopping today. Meanwhile, Duke has lived off their home crowd long enough (12-0 at home)... it's time for them to get back on the highway and take their medicine. The Blue Devils are a putrid 1-3 SU away from Cameron Indoor, dropping some ugly games to NC State, Georgia Tech and at Wisconsin. When they don't have the Cameron Crazies behind them to intimidate the opponent, they aren't nearly as tough to rattle.

Last year's matchup saw these two teams post nearly identical numbers, but Duke converted on three more three-point attempts which, ironically, was the difference in the game (9 points). Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer really struggled in that game, and if it weren't for Gerald Henderson hitting 10 of 15 shots from the field, Georgetown would have walked out of Durham with a win. Guess what... Duke doesn't have Henderson this year and I'm not sure if Duke has one player they can count on as the "go to guy" when the game is on the line like they did last year. I'm counting on the Hoyas winning this game with defense, three-point shooting and rebounding. Hoyas win by 7.

NFL REGULAR SEASON

GAME OF THE YEAR

100 DIME

UNDERDOG

GAME OF THE YEAR

Raiders (+9) 20, Bengals 17

Here's what I told my clients...

No, I'm not insane. My biggest NFL play of the season is on the hapless Oakland Raiders for a number of reasons. First I want you to know I'm not chasing a loss, because I've won the last two days and have won 20 of the last 27 days, including a few 50-dime winners and a 75-dime winner in college football a few weeks ago. This is a game I've been promoting since Monday when I first saw the point spreads. Anyone who has been following me knows I've been talking about this game for a while, and since the number is basically the same as it was then, I'm all over it and I'm suggesting that you should be too. Remember, I'm 10-3-1 with all my selections 75 dimes and higher. I plan to make that 11-3-1 after today.

Bear with me as I offer a few explanations as to why I like the Raiders so much. First off, let's look at the Bengals. They are clearly the most surprising team in the AFC... yes, even more surprising than Denver at this point. They've beaten both the Ravens and Steelers TWICE this year and will have to completely melt down to NOT win the AFC North. They enter today's game off a grueling 18-12 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and before that they handed the Ravens a 17-7 setback at home. In fact, this team has played three masterful games in a row, defensively, and are more than due for a huge letdown. No team in the NFL, no matter how good they are, can be "on" every single Sunday. Occasionally these NFL teams tend to "take the week off" in preparation for a team they know they should beat. This is one of those spots for Cincy. It's completely ridiculous to ask these guys to travel all the way across the country and be "fired up" to play a 2-7 Oakland team... especially after the type of emotional games they've had to endure recently.

Look back at October 4th @ Cleveland. The Bengals entered that game off wins against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and a near-win over Denver in the first week of the season. All three of those games were decided by 7 points or less and all came down to the wire. So they go to Cleveland, a team they knew they should beat, and it took every bit of overtime for them to get a 23-20 win. This is an identical situation to that one, only their traveling 3000 miles this time to play an Oakland team that, honestly, no one wants to play out there... especially Cincinnati. The Bengals are 0-9 all time in Oakland. That's right --- this franchise has NEVER beaten the Raiders on the road in 9 tries in franchise history. Their last loss came back in 2003, 23-20, and before that it was 1998, 27-10. I've always told you it's hard for a western team to go east and vice versa... even more so when a team has never won in the place they're going. Cincy will have its work cut out for them today, as I see this game going down to the wire.

The Bengals were completely clueless, offensively, last week when Cedric Benson left the game. They didn't score a single offensive touchdown the entire game, and QB Carson Palmer was very average, completing 18 of 30 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns. Why do you think they picked up Larry Johnson? I think the Bengals are telling us Benson's injury might be worse than first thought and they don't really trust rookie Bernard Scott (13 for 33 last week). The reason this is important is because if the Raiders have a weakness on defense it's against the run. That plays right into our hands today because it was going to take someone like Benson for the Bengals to have any consistency in the running game against Oakland. Even against the Raiders I don't see Scott running for more than about 3 yards per carry... and why should we... he's a rookie getting his first start (most likely). And as good as Cincy's pass game has been so far this season, I'm not sure they've seen a pass defense quite as good as what they're going to see today.

Oakland allows just 190 yards per game through the air at home, and having faced QBs like Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb, that's saying a lot. As you know I'm big into fantasy football, and the Raiders rank 6th in the NFL against opposing fantasy QBs. That means they don't, on average, allow much yardage and they rarely surrender passing TDs. No reason to think that changes today. The way to beat Oakland is to run it down their throats... and it's no surprise that the Raiders defense ranks 29th against fantasy RBs. Obviously, that means running backs are gouging this team for yards and TDs, much more so than QBs. And again, that helps us tremendously because I have absolutely no faith in Bernard Scott, Brian Leonard or even Larry Johnson. Mark my words... the Bengals will have trouble moving the ball on most drives because of these factors.

If you look at all of Oakland's home games this year, you'll see an eerie similarity in the games in which they were hammered (23-3 to Denver and 38-0 to the NY Jets) and the games they competed (13-9 win over Philly, 24-20 loss to San Diego, and 16-10 loss to Kansas City). In their two blowout losses, the Raiders allowed both the Broncos and Jets to run for over 200 yards as a team. In the tighter games, the running games were limited and the scores were obviously more competitive because Oakland can play pass defense with anyone in the league. Trust me, Chad Ochocinco is going to have his hands full with Nnamdi Asomugha... and with him expected to be limited (see last week) in that matchup, that leaves Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell to pick up the slack. Remember, the Bengals lost Chris Henry two weeks ago and won't have his services in the passing game the rest of the season. That's a bigger loss than many people really understand... and it's going to show it's ugly head again today. Bottom line: Cincinnati will struggle to move the ball much of the day.

As for Oakland, I realize there's not much to get excited about. I mean, we are talking about a 2-7 team. But we're catching them at home after a home loss (no travel) against a team that has now traveled back-to-back weeks and it coming a long way to be here today. We're also catching the Bengals off two straight emotionally draining victories that gave them a little breathing room in the AFC North. And I really like the fact Oakland made the decision to move QB JaMarcus Russell to the bench in favor of Bruce Gradkowski. Are we getting a top notch starter here? No, obviously we aren't. But I believe it's an upgrade at the QB position who isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and take a hit in order to deliver an accurate pass, but is also mobile enough to tuck it away and move the ball with his legs. Gradkowski used to be the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs under Jon Gruden, so it's not like he's coming into this game with no experience. He also gets to work with a healthy bunch of wide receivers, including Chaz Schilens, who was the best receiver the Raiders had in the pre-season. Let's also not forget TE Zach Miller. Not only is he a viable threat in the passing game, but the one area of weakness in the Bengals secondary is keeping an eye on opposing TEs (nearly 50 yards and 0.8 TDs per game to TEs).

As for Oakland's running game, they have all three of them healthy and ready to go, which gives Tom Cable the ability to go with the "hot hand". If Justin Fargas is running well, they'll stick with him. If not, they can fall back on Michael Bush or Darren McFadden. Bush and McFadden are both capable of catching the ball out of the backfield too, so don't be surprised if Gradkowski checks down to his backs often. The Raiders run for nearly 140 yards per game at home, and this will accomplish two things. First, it keeps the clock moving while the Raiders are slowly moving the ball down the field. Second, it keeps Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense off the field.

Look, I know this isn't a sexy pick, but it's as strong as I've had in the NFL since my Super Bowl winner on Arizona last year. It's stronger than my easy (ugly) winner on the Rams last week. Dogs are covering the number more and more ever week in the NFL, and I've been tuned in for weeks. Plus, Cincy doesn't play the role of favorite very well. They're just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Just not a good role for the Bengals here today. This one will come down to the wire. Maybe the Bengals win, maybe they don't... but I just don't see them winning by more than 10 points. If the Bengals were the pick, why did the number open at 10, then 70-75% of the public action came in on the Bengals, and now the line has dropped a half-point to 9.5? That clearly tells me Vegas is begging you to take the Bengals giving way too many points in this one, as they haven't won a road game all year by more than 7 points and have only accomplished that feat just once all year. Too many factors playing against the Bengals today, so I'm siding with the Raiders as my top NFL play of the year thus far.

2nd Biggest Play of My Career

75 Dime Super Bowl Winner

Arizona covers versus Steelers in Super Bowl

BIGGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF 2009

75 DIME

PAC 10

GAME OF THE YEAR

11/7: Stanford (+7) OUTRIGHT Over Oregon

Here's what I told my clients...

2009

8-3 Run to Close the NFL Playoffs

164 Dimes Profit

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

40 DIME RELEASES

9-4 RUN

A simple system with plays rated from in 5 Dime increments up to 100 Dimes.

Truth be told, you will rarely find a play over 50 Dimes, but remember, the rating system serves a two-fold purpose. First, by rating each play it allows me to express how strong I like one selection versus another on a daily and weekly basis. Second, it allows you as a gambler to properly allocate your bankroll.

From running parlay cards in high school to my current position of helping fantasy football fanatics win their league as President of FantasyPlanet.com and FantasyFootball.com, I’ve been analyzing college and professional sports literally my entire life. You've undoubtedly heard me during the football season on radio as I do 20-25 interviews a week on top sport talk stations throughout the country, doling out valuable advice and tips.

I told myself at a young age that my career path was going to be in the sports field in some capacity, and since I didn’t get my shot to play baseball in the Big Leagues after my college career, I decided to do the next best thing… talk about sports on a daily basis. My first job out of college was as a sports radio talk show host and I haven’t left the sports industry since, giving sound advice to anyone who asks. That’s all I know how to do.

One thing I’ve seen over the years is that if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. Vegas isn’t stupid and I don’t see them going out of business anytime soon.

I’ve always believed the two keys to any successful sports bettor is 1) line value and 2) moderation. Too often the unskilled player panics after a losing day and “doubles up” the next day in an attempt to recoup his losses. That is a recipe for disaster, one that will only increase the size of the BIG hole you're in.

I’ll be the first to tell you that not every day is a winning day; it’s impossible. But I can tell you that I’ll be able to help you find line value on a consistent basis and teach you that moderation is the key to winning long term. I mean, isn’t that the overall goal?

If you’re looking to make tons of money in a few days you’re setting yourself up for failure. But if you want to be profitable over a long period of time, then I’m your man. Hop on board and once your with me for a month (or longer), I can assure you you’ll never play games on your own again. If you follow my two guidelines over a long period of time, I will make you money, period.